Epstein saga reveals Republican rifts - and the power of Trump's base

After Congress voted to force the justice department to release its files on Jeffrey Epstein, the legislation will now move to President Donald Trump's desk.

And if Trump does sign it into law as expected, it will mark the final action in what has been a remarkable and abrupt change in his position.

For months, Trump was dismissive of calls to release the government's full trove of documents about the late financier and convicted sex offender. He described the case in July as "pretty boring stuff".

That was until Sunday, when - with a snowballing number of Republicans in the House signalling they would vote to release them - the president relented and encouraged them to do so. His shift opened the floodgates for an overwhelming 427-1 vote on Tuesday.

His reversal was a rare instance of Republican politicians pressuring Trump into action, and into a very public change in stance, rather than the other way around.

Regardless of what new information any future files may contain, the saga exposed fractures within the Republican Party and highlighted the power of Trump's Make America Great Again (Maga) base.

It has also shown that, despite his best efforts, he may have struggled to move attention away from the Epstein files if he had not backed the vote.

"I think he sees that this is an issue he's underwater in with average Republicans," said Martha Zoller, a conservative radio host and Republican strategist in Georgia.

"I think Trump had to do this in this point in time because he wants to be back on the right side," she added.

A NPR/PBS News/Marist poll taken at the end of September - when Trump was yet to back the release of the files - suggested that 67% of Republican registered voters supported the release of all the Epstein files with victim's names redacted. Another 18% supported releasing some of the files with similar redactions.

"Transparency on what happened is extremely important to the voters," Chris Ager, the former chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party, told the BBC.

He praised Trump's reversal, arguing it was the sign of a healthy party "that you can have a disagreement on an issue... and come to a conclusion where essentially everyone is agreeing: let's release the files".

Maga 'ripped apart'

For much of this year, however, there were sharp disagreements on the issue. Trump's reversal came as it looked increasingly likely he could face a revolt in the House.

The most notable defector, Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, said at a press conference with Epstein survivors on Tuesday that the saga had "ripped Maga apart".

Due to her vocal opposition, Trump dubbed her a "traitor" on Truth Social. Typically, such a public attack from the president would quiet dissent from a Republican, especially one up for re-election. But in a sign of the political potency of the Epstein issue, Greene pushed back.

"He called me a traitor for standing with these women and refusing to take my name off this discharge petition," Greene said on Tuesday.

The House would advance the legislation, Greene said, "because the American people who we serve as representatives here in Congress demanded this vote happen".

Greene, who first broke with Trump in the spring, has been the public face of building dissent within Trump's Maga movement - not just on Epstein, but on other issues such as the US bombing of Iranian nuclear sites in June and the president's continuing focus on foreign wars.

But on the Epstein issue in particular, Greene and others in the movement have called for greater transparency despite Trump's desire to focus on other issues. And after Tuesday's votes in Congress, they can claim real success.

"The saga reveals how much power the Republican base now wields," party strategist Rina Shah told NPR in the summer. "MAGA voters are furious."

"This pressure is forcing even the most loyal Trump allies to break ranks. And it signals a Republican Party that's increasingly populist, where the grassroots can push leaders to act or they have to pay a price."

Watch: How much do Americans care about the Epstein story?

The Epstein vote has also overshadowed other White House initiatives. Last week, President Trump announced he would roll back tariffs on groceries like coffee, bananas, and beef as Americans' cost of living concerns increased.

"I think he'd rather people talk about those things than Epstein," Zoller, the Republican strategist in Georgia, said.

One senior Trump administration official told Axios that the president decided to drop his opposition to the legislation because the noise around the Epstein issue was proving to be a "major distraction".

Greene herself has said the White House was going down the wrong track by resisting the release of more Epstein files, instead of focusing on other issues.

"It's insanely the wrong direction to go," Greene told POLITICO. "The five-alarm fire is healthcare and affordability for Americans. And that's where the focus should be."

The White House, meanwhile, said in a statement to the BBC that "by releasing thousands of pages of documents, co-operating with the House Oversight Committee's subpoena request, and President Trump recently calling for further investigations into Epstein's Democrat friends, the Trump Administration has done more for the victims than Democrats ever have."

Even beyond Epstein, Trump's influence on the party has been tested - and even rebuffed this week. And there are signs of potential rifts, too.

His public efforts to encourage Indiana's leaders to redraw their congressional maps to favour Republicans before the 2026 midterm elections hit a potentially critical roadblock on the same day as the Epstein vote.

The Republican-controlled Indiana Senate voted on Tuesday to adjourn until January, signalling they would not take up the issue of redistricting. That is despite major pressure from the president as well as the state's Republican governor who has asked lawmakers to work on redrawing maps.

Trump has even threatened to back primary challenges to senators who oppose redistricting. But as with the Epstein issue, there has been defiance within the party.

"I've been a legislator 42 years. I'm not going to change my vote," Republican Senator Vaneta Becker told CNN.

Referring to the nickname for people from Indiana, she said: "Hoosiers are not used to being sort of in a blackmail position. It does not bode well."

Despite this defiance on several fronts, the president remains the most powerful figure in the party. And as those close to Trump have noted, he has navigated fallouts and internal opposition in the past.

"The Trump team has been through worse. We survived. We know we're in this era where everything is accelerated," one Trump adviser told Axios on Monday. "Just a year ago, we won the presidency, and Congress and Democrats looked finished. Now look where we are. It'll change."