Bafana need a victory. Evidence says they may not get it

If you haven’t been keeping up, here’s what’s happening in the 2026 World Cup, at least as far as it affects Mzansi. And it’s not good news: Bafana Bafana’s 2026 campaign is hanging by a thread as they head into their final Group A match against South Korea.

You might be wondering why this game is so important. Simply put: it’s South Africa’s last chance to qualify for the knockout stages.

Right now, Bafana are sitting at the bottom of the group. Mexico lead the standings with six points and South Korea are second with three. Czechia are third with one point: level with Bafana, but ahead on goal difference.

That means South Africa needs a big result against South Korea if they want to keep their World Cup dream alive. They’ll almost certainly need to win Thursday’s decisive group-stage clash to enter the knockout stages.

A sliver of hope

There are still a few ways Bafana can qualify for the knockout stages. But put your thinking cap on: you might need a calculator for this one.

The easiest way for Bafana to qualify is to beat South Korea and hope that Mexico do them a favour by beating Czechia. If that happens, Mexico would top the group and South Africa would end in second place, guaranteeing them a spot in the knockout stages. Simple enough. But it’s pretty unlikely.

Another scenario is that both Bafana and Czechia win their final group matches. Since Czechia faces group leaders Mexico, South Africa would then need to win by at least two more goals than Czechia to move ahead of them in the standings.

The last possibility is qualifying as one of the tournament’s eight best third-placed teams across the 12 groups. In that case, a Bafana win would be crucial, with goal difference potentially becoming the deciding factor.

For those wondering, the best third-placed teams are ranked using the following criteria:

• Points earned in all group matches
• Goal difference in all group matches
• Goals scored in all group matches
• Fair-play record (yellow and red cards)
• Fifa ranking, if everything else is level

A draw against South Korea could also move South Africa into third place if Czechia lose to Mexico. That would keep Bafana mathematically alive, but it would still leave their qualification hopes uncertain at best.

This is where things get tricky for Mzansi.

The problem is that winning has become the one thing Bafana have struggled to do consistently.

A seven-match winless run would normally set alarm bells ringing. South Africa’s run of losses includes five friendlies, a defeat to Mexico in their World Cup opener, and a draw against Czechia in their second group-stage encounter.

Despite the results, there is still widespread expectation that Bafana can find a way to win.

If we’re being honest, much of that belief appears to be built on hope rather than evidence. Bafana have scored just five goals in their past seven matches, highlighting a lack of cutting edge in the final third and ongoing struggles to convert chances into goals. Football matches are ultimately decided by goals, and South Africa have not been clinical enough on that front.

What are South Korea’s chances?

That said, the clash against South Korea may offer a glimmer of encouragement.

The Koreans have a mixed record against African opposition. In their most recent meeting with an African side, they suffered a heavy 4-0 defeat to Côte d’Ivoire. Historically, South Korea have faced 16 different African countries, winning 28 of their 59 matches and losing 17.

Those numbers suggest South Korea are far from unbeatable.

But they don’t change the fundamental question facing Bafana: Can a team that has gone seven matches without a win suddenly find the result it needs when the stakes are highest?

Not everyone is backing Bafana to get the result they need.

Sports journalist and football fan Khunulogo Mpolokeng is one person who remains unconvinced.

“I doubt Bafana will beat South Korea, who I rate highly. My prediction is not even based on recent form, but on my rating of Asian football in general. I just think Bafana’s group opponents in this World Cup are all better than us,” Mpolokeng told /explain/.

“We should be content that we at least qualified for this year’s tournament. The experience will surely be valuable for the future, provided we qualify regularly.”

Mpolokeng’s bark is fiercer than his bite though: he predicts a draw rather than an outright loss in tomorrow morning’s match.

Bafana may be up against it, but football is a funny game. One moment of magic, or one clinical finish, could be just enough to keep their World Cup dream alive.