Your loaf of bread could cost R45 in 10 years

By Palesa Matlala

• Economists expect inflation to rise again because of higher fuel prices, which increase the cost of transporting and producing food across South Africa.

• Researchers warn that a 700 gram loaf of white bread could cost around R45 by 2036 if prices continue increasing at the same pace seen over recent years.

South Africans are already paying more for groceries, electricity, transport and other everyday essentials.

Now experts are warning that one of the country’s most important foods could soon become much more expensive.

A loaf of white bread that costs about R20 today could cost around R45 by 2036 if prices continue rising at the same pace.

Bread is the second most important staple food in South Africa after maize meal.

Millions of families depend on bread every day because it is one of the cheapest and easiest ways to feed a household.

For many people, bread is eaten at breakfast, lunch and supper.

If the price keeps climbing, it could become too expensive for many low income families.

The warning comes as Statistics South Africa prepares to release the latest inflation figures.

Inflation measures how quickly the prices of everyday goods and services increase.

When inflation rises, people pay more for food, fuel, transport, electricity and other household essentials.

Inflation increased from 4% in April to 4.5% in May.

Many economists expect it to rise again when the June figures are released.

University of Johannesburg economist Dr Charles Saba said higher fuel prices are one of the biggest reasons inflation is increasing.

He said conflict in the Middle East has pushed up global oil prices.

When petrol and diesel become more expensive, it costs more to transport food from farms to factories, shops and supermarkets.

Businesses often pass those higher costs on to consumers.

Although fuel prices dropped during July, Saba warned that the relief may not last.

If fighting in the Middle East continues, oil prices could rise again, leading to higher fuel prices in South Africa.

Independent economist Dr Bonke Dumisa agreed that consumers are still under pressure.

He said prices usually go up quickly but come down very slowly.

Even when businesses pay less for fuel, many do not reduce food prices by much.

Investec economist Tertia Jacobs believes inflation could slow slightly because of lower fuel prices, but she warned that the outlook remains uncertain as global oil prices can change at any time.

Another concern is the rising cost of bread.

Data analyst Andrew Weston compared bread prices over the past few years.

A 700 gram loaf of white bread cost R13.51 in 2019.

By 2024, it had risen to R18.68.

If prices continue increasing at a similar pace, Weston estimates the same loaf could cost about R45 by 2036.

He stressed that this is not a guaranteed price but a forecast based on previous price increases.

Families who buy two or three loaves every week would feel the biggest impact.

A R45 loaf would add hundreds of rand to a family’s monthly grocery bill, forcing many households to cut back on other essentials.

The warning comes as millions of South Africans continue to battle unemployment, rising food prices and the high cost of living.

Many families already spend most of their income on groceries, transport, rent and electricity, leaving little money for school costs, healthcare or emergencies.

For now, South Africans can only hope inflation slows before one of the country’s most basic foods becomes a luxury many families can no longer afford.

Pictured above: Sliced white bread

Image source: File