After a worst-ever start: what does Tunisia need to qualify for the Africa Cup of Nations?

Tunisia find themselves in an extremely difficult position following the disastrous start they endured in the qualifiers for the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations, which Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda will host next year.

The 2027 Africa Cup of Nations will be held in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, between 19 June and 17 July next year, with the participation of 24 teams, led by the three host nations.

Worst start in the African qualifiers

Tunisia lost 2-0 at home to Libya on Friday evening, in the third round of qualifiers for the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations.

This was no ordinary defeat. It carried negative numbers never before seen in Tunisia's history in the continental qualifiers, marking their biggest home loss in Africa Cup of Nations qualifying.

Never before had Tunisia trailed by two goals on their own ground across their entire history in the tournament's qualifiers, a measure of just how badly their Libyan neighbours rocked them.

The result ended a run of more than 25 years without a two-goal defeat in Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers. Their last such loss came on 24 March 2001, when Morocco beat them 2-0 in Rabat.

Worse still, Tunisia managed their poorest start ever in the continental qualifiers. They failed to win any of their first three matches for the first time, taking two draws and a defeat for just two points out of a possible nine.

Tunisia's standing in the Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers

Those two points left Tunisia fourth in Group Eight, with three matches remaining in the second round.

The Eagles of Carthage sit two points behind leaders Uganda, who have played one match fewer, and the same margin behind Libya, who claimed their first win to climb into second.

Level with Tunisia are Botswana, third in the group, who face an eagerly awaited clash against Uganda in the third round tomorrow, Saturday.

Format of the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers

The Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers run across 12 groups, with the top two teams in each qualifying directly for the finals.

Groups containing one of the host nations work differently. Here the host qualifies alongside the side with the most points in the group.

That rule applies to the Eagles of Carthage's group, which includes Uganda, one of the three nations hosting the tournament next summer.

Uganda, then, have already booked their place at the Africa Cup of Nations. One more spot remains, reserved for whoever finishes with the most points in the group.

How does Tunisia qualify for the Africa Cup of Nations?

Things get far trickier for Tunisia if Botswana beat Uganda tomorrow, Saturday. A win would lift Botswana to five points, three clear of the Eagles of Carthage.

At that point Tunisia must win all three of their remaining qualifiers to reach the finals.

The Eagles of Carthage meet Libya again next Tuesday, then face Uganda and Botswana next March.

Three wins would take Tunisia to 11 points, a tally no other side could pass bar Uganda, who have already qualified automatically.

Only Botswana could match it, by beating Uganda home and away and then Libya. Even so, Tunisia would edge ahead on the head-to-head record if they beat Botswana in the final round, with the first meeting having finished 2-2.