ANC crashes to 18% support in new Joburg poll

There are probably some sweaty palms at ANC headquarters this week, thanks to research showing it polling at just 18% in Johannesburg ahead of November’s local elections.

A new Social Research Foundation poll puts the DA at 42%, the ANC at 18% and MK at 13%. If November’s results follow this pattern, we’re not simply talking about the ANC losing support: there will be a fundamental reshuffling of power in South Africa’s biggest city.

The polling was produced with Victory Research, whose CEO Gareth van Onselen previously spent about 12 years working for the DA. That’s important context, particularly when his company’s latest polling gives the DA such a commanding lead.

But does it mean we should chuck the poll in the bin? No. The better test is whether his polling has actually been accurate before. In 2024, it was surprisingly close.

Just before the national election, SRF/Victory put the ANC at 42.2%; it eventually received 40.18%. The DA was predicted to win 21.6% of the vote and finished on 21.81%. Figures for the MK and the EFF were a bit further off, but the poll captured the overall direction of the election pretty well. Van Onselen’s earlier polling in 2019 was less precise, particularly for opposition parties.

So: credible enough to take seriously, but definitely not gospel. The more interesting question is what 18% would mean for Joburg.

The city has spent years bouncing between unstable coalitions. If the DA gets anywhere near 42%, it still won’t have an outright majority, but will need far fewer coalition partners to govern.

An ANC performance of 20% or lower, meanwhile, would require it to enter into a complicated coalition with many different parties. MK polling at 13% suggests that former ANC voters aren’t simply running into the DA’s arms. The ANC could be losing people in several directions, including to parties closer to its own political tradition.

Turnout on the day could still completely change the game. Local elections are notoriously sensitive to which supporters actually bother voting. So don’t read 18% as November’s result. Read it as a warning: the ANC may now be fighting not just to regain Johannesburg, but to remain one of the city’s dominant political forces at all.