THE FUSE

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center now puts a 75 percent chance on El Niño reaching historic strength during October through December. By the center's definition, that means a three-month Relative Oceanic Niño Index value of plus 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.5 degrees Fahrenheit) or higher, which would exceed every El Niño in its record dating back to 1950. The figure comes from the center's ENSO Diagnostic Discussion issued Thursday, Sept. 10, up from 69 percent in the Aug. 13 update. The center kept its El Niño Advisory in place and continues to give greater than 90 percent odds of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.