How Welsh sides can secure knockout Euro rugby
BBC | 07.01.2026 13:40
Wales' four regions go from festive derbies to European action this weekend with the quartet all eyeing knockout rugby.
Cardiff, Dragons, Ospreys and Scarlets played all-Welsh games on 26 December and New Year's Day in the United Rugby Championship (URC).
They have had plenty of time to get over their bruises before key fixtures in Europe.
Scarlets are representing Wales in the premier Champions Cup while the other three feature in Challenge Cup.
All four will hope to add fixtures to their diaries for the first weekend of April, when last-16 ties will be played in both tournaments.
The Champions Cup features 24 teams split into four groups of six, with the top four from each pool qualifying for the knockout stages.
The four clubs that come fifth in their respective pools have the consolation of dropping into the Challenge Cup for an away tie.
The second-tier tournament features 18 sides split into three pools of six, with the top four in each group going through to the last 16.
The clubs are ranked, with the group winners at one to three and second-placed sides as four to six.
The two highest-ranked sides that finish third also get home advantage in the last 16, with those dropping down from the Champions Cup ranked from nine to 12 and going on their travels.
Scarlets are bottom of the URC after derby defeats by Ospreys and Dragons that have put head coach Dwayne Peel under pressure.
It looked like they were back on track after battling displays in the Champions Cup against Bristol, when edged out 17-16 in Llanelli, and holders Bordeaux-Begles, when they scored three tries in a 50-21 loss.
The consolation bonus point against the Bears means that Scarlets will be guaranteed knockout rugby if they beat Pau with a bonus point and deny their French visitors, who are second in the Top 14, anything.
That would also give Scarlets, who face a tough round-four trip to Northampton, a chance of sneaking into the last 16 of the Champions Cup to travel to a big hitter.
Bulls and Pau, who finish the group stages by meeting in France, are currently below Peel's men.
Defeat in Llanelli on Saturday night would leave Scarlets needing a Franklin's Gardens miracle to earn knockout rugby of any kind.
Scarlets fixtures
- Pau (home) - Saturday, 10 January (20:00 GMT)
- Northampton (away) - Sunday, 18 January (15:15 GMT)
Cardiff are in a strong position to qualify for the URC play-offs but are looking over their shoulder after a disappointing festive period.
Derby defeats to Scarlets and Ospreys sandwiched a narrow and nervy success against Dragons at the Arms Park.
Corniel van Zyl's men are looking good for the top eight of the URC but are now appear vulnerable in the race for home advantage.
They might also have to go on their travels in Europe if they can make the last 16 after giving their knockout hopes a boost with a dramatic last-kick win against Ulster.
Cardiff will qualify with a round to spare if they beat Racing 92 at the Arms Park on Saturday night and then Ulster overcome Cheetahs in Amsterdam on Sunday.
The Blue and Blacks finish with a tough trip to resurgent Exeter in what could be a shoot-out for home advantage.
Cardiff's priority is the league, but the two-time Challenge Cup winners currently have the ability to rotate their squad and still push for knockout European rugby.
Cardiff fixtures
- Racing 92 (home) - Saturday, 10 January (15:15 GMT)
- Exeter (away) - Sunday, 18 January (13:00 GMT)
At the start of the European campaign, Dragons' trip to Benetton on Saturday would have seemed a write-off but now, thanks to three wins in four, they travel with hope.
Filo Tiatia's men are fresh from victories against Lyon, Connacht and Scarlets plus a battling performance in a 22-19 defeat by Cardiff, when they were pushing at the death.
That run looked highly unlikely after Dragons slumped to a 41-17 loss at then winless Perpignan in their Challenge Cup opener.
Dragons then stunned Lyon 23-21 after trailing 21-6 in the final quarter and that means one more win could be enough for qualification.
If Dragons upset the odds at Benetton – who are fresh from a home loss to Edinburgh – then they will have a shot at earning a home knockout tie when hosting Newcastle in round four.
More likely is a must-win versus Red Bulls, who are bottom of the Prem but could arrive in Newport with three Challenge Cup victories, in a game that kicks off the final weekend.
Dragons have been strong at Rodney Parade in 2025-26 but have been poor travellers for years, so home advantage could be key and anything they can get from Parma would be welcome.
Dragons fixtures
- Benetton (away) - Saturday, 10 January (17:30 GMT)
- Newcastle (home) - Friday, 16 January (20:00 GMT)
Ospreys are on the up in the URC thanks to impressive festive derby wins against Scarlets and Cardiff, plus they are looking good for a knockout European tie in Bridgend.
Mark Jones' men produced a remarkable comeback to beat Connacht at Brewery Field in round one and then won with a four-try bonus at Montauban.
Ospreys eased to a league victory against Zebre in October and a repeat in Parma, where they lost last season, would mean they go into their finale against Montpellier with a shot at being seeded first.
That would earn home advantage all the way through to the final in Bilbao on Friday, 22 May.
Last year was a missed opportunity in the Challenge Cup after a last-16 win against Scarlets was followed by defeat to Lyon in Swansea.
Being in Bridgend, where they can take rivals out of their comfort zone, would give Ospreys a real edge in their bid to go at least one step further.
Amid uncertainty in Welsh professional rugby, Jones' resilient squad continue to prove a point on the pitch.
Ospreys fixtures
- Zebre (away) - Sunday, 11 January (13:00 GMT)
- Montpellier (home) - Saturday, 17 January (20:00 GMT).